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2021年全球Top20集装箱港口预测报告

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发布时间:2021-07-14 来源: 浏览:

2021年全球Top20集装箱港口预测报告

中国科学院预测科学研究中心

世界港口预测研究小组

 

中国科学院预测科学研究中心(以下简称预测中心)“2021年全球Top20集装箱港口预测报告新闻发布会”于2021年7月14日在中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院举行。

发布会上,预测中心发布了对2021年全球Top20港口集装箱吞吐量及其排名的预测和分析(排名见表1)。具体有以下几个主要特点。

(1)2021年集装箱运输业会出现恢复性增长,主要得益于东亚地区经济体,尤其是中国率先控制疫情,快速实现复工复产。整体上,全球前20大集装箱港口中国仍占近半数,前10大集装箱港口有7个来自中国,相比2020年,中国港口集装箱吞吐量的增长速度有较大程度上升。

(2)2021年中国多数港口集装箱运输服务需求呈现增长态势,其中尤以宁波舟山、深圳和天津港上升明显。根据模型测算结果,全球Top20集装箱港口有9个来自中国,中国集装箱运输的发展仍然是全球稳定发展的重心和基础。

(3)按区域分析,除亚洲的高雄港维持负增长外,全球多数港口集装箱吞吐量将呈现恢复性上升态势。

从整体来看,预计2021年全球前20大集装箱港口与2020年变化不大,港口排名发生变化的具体情况如下:

(1)洛杉矶港将超过高雄港,位列全球第16位,高雄港退居第17位;

(2)长滩港将超过汉堡港,位列全球第18位,汉堡港退居第19位。


 

Outlook of Container Throughput at GlobalTop20 Ports for 2021

 

A Press conference on “Forecasts on container throughput at global Top20 Ports for 2021” organized by Center for Forecasting Science (CEFS), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) is held at Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, CAS on July 14th, 2021.

 

CEFS released the annual forecasts on container throughput and the ranking of the global Top20 ports in 2021 (See Table 1). The main conclusions are as follows,

 

(1)   In 2021, the container shipping industry will see a recovery growth, which is mainly due to the East Asian economies, especially China, taking the lead in controlling the COVID-19 epidemic and rapidly resuming work and production. Generally, in 2021, 7 out of the top 10 ports will come from China, and the growth rate of China’s container throughput tends to increase considerably.

(2)   On the whole, the demand for container shipping services of most ports in China will increase in 2021, especially in Ningbo Zhoushan, Shenzhen and Tianjin ports. According to the prediction results of the model, 9 of the top 20 container ports in the world will come from China, and the development of China’s container transport is still the focus and foundation of the stable development of the world.


(3)   From the view of regional level, the container throughput of most ports in the world will display a recovery trend except for the negative growth at the port of Kaohsiung in Asia.


From the view of the ranking, it is predicted that the Top20 ports in 2021 will be similar to those in 2020 except some slight changes, which is described in the following:


(1)   The port of Los Angeles will move up to the 16th place in the world, and the container throughput at the port of Kaohsiung will move down to the 17th place.


(2)   The port of Long Beach will surpass the port of Hamburg, ranking 18thin the world, and the port of Hamburg will retreat to 19th in the world.

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